As folks continue to speculate that Guinea-Bissau’s recent coup was “a sham,” Small Wars Journal published some thoughts that Salah Ben Hammou and I had on suspicion’s that Turkey’s 2016 coup attempt was similarly an inside job.

The earlier entry argued the entire affair was an intelligence operation and not an actual coup attempt. Though we are in full agreement that Erdogan used the coup as a pretense for mass purges and broader repressive actions, we disagree with the suggestion that the entire affair was a ruse constructed by the intelligence services.

Much of the false flag argument relies on aspects of the coup that appeared to be unusual, such as its haphazard execution and the lack of a written coup plan. We note, based on the hundreds of coup cases we have investigated, that although Turkey does not fit the profile of the “typical” coup case, unusual developments frequently occur.

Various aspects of the case that are presented as anomalous are from from unique. Haphazard execution, for example, is rather common and plotters often avoid leaving written evidence.

I encourage anyone interested in the case to read either post, especially the original remarks by Mustafa Kirisci, Ibrahim Kocaman, and Murat Balci.