CoupCast is a political forecasting effort originally developed by Curtis Bell at One Earth Future. As the name implies, the primary goal was to use novel data and machine learning to forecast coups d’etat. After Bell’s successful shift to maritime security issues, the project was managed by Clayton Besaw and Matthew Frank. Their coverage of monthly updates to the data project can be found on OEF Forecasting’s (now inactive) Medium account.

CoupCast was transferred from OEF to University of Central Florida in December 2021 and is currently directed by Jonathan Powell at the University of Kentucky. Contributors to CoupCast are currently updating necessary data and code and updates leading up to a spring 2025 relaunch. Inquiries regarding the project can be directed to Jonathan Powell.

CoupCast estimates up to August 2021 can be found in the original REIGN data files on the One Earth Future website.

CoupCast in the Media