Turkey’s 2016 coup a False Flag Op?
As folks continue to speculate that Guinea-Bissau’s recent coup was “a sham,” Small Wars Journal published some thoughts that Salah Ben Hammou and I had on suspicion’s that Turkey’s 2016 coup attempt was similarly an inside job. The earlier entry argued the entire affair was an intelligence operation and not an actual coup attempt. Though…
Guinea-Bissau Election Already Failed the Credibility Test
Last week Salah Ben Hammou and I made our latest contribution to The Conversation. Sticking to ongoing election coverage, we look at the various problems leading up to Guinea-Bissau’s November 23 election. The main takeaway is that however smoothly the election itself goes, this cycle will fail to promote confidence in the country’s electoral system.…
Buyer’s Remorse in Madagascar?
Salah Ben Hammou and I offered more thoughts on post-coup Madagascar for Foreign Policy. We point to how initial optimism for coups can fade as the elites who ultimately stage coup can take control of reform. We discuss how a range of academic work has pointed to how the masses – long treated as an…
Outside Commentary
Revisiting Coup Contagion. With Jaclyn Johnson and Christopher Faulkner. Foreign Policy Research Institute. December 6, 2023.
Norms at home, norms abroad: Security Force Assistance and Civil-Military Relations. With Jaclyn Johnson and Christopher Faulkner. Modern War Institute. September 18, 2023.
The credibility crisis of African regional organizations in the face of coups. With Mwita Chacha. Democracy in Africa. September 10, 2023.
Brazil’s 8 January insurrection: distinguishing coup advocacy from coup attempt. With Salah Ben Hammou. The Loop.
Electoral origins of the Santomean coup. With Julia Oldershaw. Political Violence at a Glance. December 5, 2022.
The International Community, Coups, and Electoral ‘Attaboys. With Salah Ben Hammou. Political Violence at a Glance. February 9, 2022.
Burkina Faso coup: latest sign of a rise in the ballot box being traded for bullets. The Conversation. January 25, 2022. French version.
Are coups really contagious. With Salah Ben Hammou. Washington Post (Monkey Cage). November 22, 2021.
Failed coup but successful transition? Contextualizing Sudan’s latest coup plot. With Salah Ben Hammou. Cairo Review of Global Affairs. October 12, 2021.
Another mutiny turned coup: Mali is no stranger to military unrest. With Christopher Faulkner, Jaclyn Johnson, and Rebecca Schiel. The Conversation. August 21, 2020.
Population size does not explain the high number of COVID-19 Cases in the United States. With Christopher Faulkner. Cairo Review of Global Affairs. April 4, 2020.
Flattening the curve. (on Covid19). With Christopher Faulkner. Duck of Minerva. March 16, 2020.
Guinea Bissau election inspires optimism – but there are still big risks. With Clayton Besaw. The Conversation. February 16, 2020.
Bissau-Guineans hold their breath – again – as uncertainty deepens. With Clayton Besaw. The Conversation. November 3, 2019.
Essebsi is Gone: Tunisia’s young democracy faces its toughest test. With Clayton Besaw. The Conversation. August 15, 2019.
Peeling back the layers on the role of private military and security companies in Africa. With Chris Faulkner and Joshua Lambert. The Conversation. August 4, 2019.
Rivalries ahead of Guinea-Bissau’s Election Raise Questions about Stability. The Conversation. With Clayton Besaw and Devyn Escalanti. July 14, 2019.
Understanding Coup Risk in Guinea-Bissau. With Clayton Besaw. Political Violence @ a Glance. March 25, 2019.
Did the Zimbabwe Coup Encourage Gabon’s Plotters? With Mwita Chacha. Political Violence @ a Glance. January 24, 2019.
The coup in Gabon surprised everyone. Why forecasts, and the plot, failed. With Clayton Besaw. The Conversation. January 15, 2019.
It’s been one year since Zimbabwe toppled Mugabe. Why isn’t it a democracy yet? With Mwita Chacha. Washington Post (Monkey Cage). November 17, 2018.
Elections and Coup Risk in Zimbabwe One Year after the Coup d’état. With Clayton Besaw. Political Violence @ a Glance. November 7, 2018.
Silent Guns: Examining the Two-Year Absence of Coups in Africa. With Rebecca Schiel. Political Violence @ a Glance. September 18, 2017.
Will Turkey’s coup attempt prompt others nearby? With Curtis Bell. Washington Post (Monkey Cage). July 30, 2016.
Turkey’s coup attempt was unusual, but not for the reasons you expect. With Curtis Bell. Washington Post (Monkey Cage). July 22, 2016.
The Military in Politics: Complications in Counting. Lawyers, Guns, & Money. May 20, 2014.
Will Thailand’s Coup Actually Fix Anything. Washington Post (Monkey Cage). May 29, 2014.
Conflict, Self-interest, and Disaggregating the Pointy End of the State. Lawyers Guns & Money. November 26, 2012.
Jonathan Powell, Ph.D. 